The United States hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, failure to coerce Russia during Ukraine conflict, Conflict with China, repeated fiascos to influence Middle Eastern states forecast the emergence of new global rule which has shifted the world politics and geopolitical realities. These emerging dynamics offers a border view of trends as well as identify global trends. Additionally, the global pandemic is still running, but world is in an enthusiastic race, ready to look ahead. One of the most pressing questions is whether ongoing Covid-19 will bring shift in global order and what it will appear to be.
Emerging realities highlights that international system, dominated by the United States, is likely to change toward a multi-polar political and geo-economic order. This viewpoint has evolved throughout the decades since the conclusion of the Cold War, as Russia, China, and other regional countries have steadily increased their military and economic dominance, while perceptions of the US decline have grown in the end of twenty-first century. On one hand, major countries’ pursuit of multipolarity underlines their desire of a harmonic world characterized by standards such as sovereignty, non-intervention, and peaceful coexistence while allowing them to explain their interaction with the growing international order on the other. The disadvantage of pursuing such a geopolitical goal is the threat it poses to the liberal international system and norms, which the United States has painstakingly created and rigorously administered since the conclusion of World War II. Another important factor that has recently begun to emerge is the impression of forceful containment of China as a result of country’s increased capabilities in economic and military sphere, as well as foreign policy of Russia based on assertiveness in response to the current Ukraine conflict. In a way, these emerging dynamics generates a paradox: such as on the one hand, China supports ideals like prosperity, peace and equality through a multi-polar geo-political global order, but on the other side, the perception created by the west about the China’s aggressiveness negates these lofty goals. Keeping in mind the emerging global dynamics, this article will concentrate on the above-mentioned features of changing international order (multi-Polarity) that China, Russia, Japan and other European States may seek, as well as the peaceful rise of the states, particularly in light of predicted responses from the United States and other major powers.
The Belt and Road Initiative has been dubbed “the most comprehensive endeavor attempted in centuries.” It is a multibillion-dollar Chinese multilateral development initiative announced in 2013 that promises to link over 70 nations by land and water, with an influence so large that it will affect every aspect of civilization. The project baseline is so large that it is not expected to be completed until 2049. Many people have seen the Project as a symbol of China’s entrance into the world scene.
For a long time, the liberal international structure is now on life support. In his inauguration address, President Biden described democracy as “fragile.” Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin remarked two years ago that “the liberal notion” had “fallen into disuse,” while China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has exalted the might of an all-powerful regime and “self-confidence in our system,” as stated in March.
The international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that the international postwar regulation’s downfall is not inevitable. No one could have anticipated that Germany would reverse decades of military reluctance by investing 100 billion euros in its military spending, that Switzerland would defrost Russian oligarchs’ investments, or that World Cup soccer, YouTube, and global energy companies would all cut ties with Russia just a month ago.
Ukraine is being considered as an exam for the sustainability of a 75-year-old idea: that unipolarity, liberal democracy, American military capability, and free trade can provide the foundations for peace and worldwide growth by almost everyone, from European and Asian leaders to current and past American politicians.
The world is understandably in the midst of one of its more turbulent eras. The coronavirus epidemic has only added to worldwide political instability at a time once the globe is in transition, with world power moving, the stalemate between the world’s major powers persisting, and a rules-based system dissolving as large states explain their commitment for multilateralism. If Ukraine becomes a lengthy test of power between Russia and the west, which appears to be the case, China will be the main geopolitical winner. When they met immediately before the invasion, China’s president, Xi Jinping, appears to have given Putin the go-ahead. He’s now supporting peace initiatives. Increasing commodity prices have harmed China’s economy. However, enhanced global supremacy is a tiny price to pay. In a nutshell, the emergence of Beijing, the collapse of confidence in the Global South as regional powers like India and Brazil failed to strengthen their economies, and the revival of “hard hedging,” have shaped the world order. By the latter, it implies nations in the region that play both sides (the US and China) in order to optimize their opportunities and liberty while avoiding choosing sides. As a result, the globe has become “more divided and volatile” in recent years.