The ongoing conflict of Ukraine may lead to horrifying warfare in Europe, it can aggravate a prolonged conflict. Initially, the tensions between Ukraine and Russia started in 2014, when President Viktor Yanukovych was exiled due to pro-Russian sentiments, and pro-west leadership came into power in Ukraine. From the independence of Ukraine in 1991, Russia treated her like a protégé in the region. But recently growing ambition of Ukraine toward the west and to become a part of European Union. Russia is uncomfortable with the action of Ukraine. However, Russia may not anxious about joining the EU, rather by the concerns of Ukraine to become part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO.
All western media outlets convey the one-sided story of this whole war scenario. While Russia is only concerned about its national security in the region. The growing steps of NATO toward eastward is the principal root cause of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned NATO allies not to cross the (Redline) Ukraine. It is because NATO is a security alliance of the EU and the United States if Ukraine becomes an ally to NATO. NATO allies may deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles in Ukraine to deter Russia, and Moscow can be a strike in just five minutes. It is the principal reason that Russia is concerned about its national security on its western border, and wants that eastern European countries must have a pro-Russian approach just like Belarus.
Any country that faces a security dilemma in its national security policy must take action to craft the situation in its hands. This conflict between the two countries takes us back to a historic event when during the cold war Cuban missile crisis happened and United Stated took Soviets on board and resolve the matter in just 13 days. Now, when the same situation took place with Russia, all western countries played the blame game, ignoring the principal cause of conflict and blindly siding with Ukraine. It seems like the west already wanted to aggravate the between Russia-Ukraine. Even European Union countries and the United States intelligence agencies already knew about the Russian invasion in Ukraine, they deliberately avoided the circumstance, and did not take any precautions to prevent the Russian-Ukraine war that is the huge diplomatic failure of the west. So, under their surveillance, it is unacceptable for other countries to start a conflict like this.
There are maybe some reasons that are stopping the west to prevent this war its consequences would only be faced by Ukraine, by becoming a battleground of this conflict. The increasing influence of Asia in the geopolitics and economic rise of Asia is the biggest hurdle for the west, especially for the United States. They always needed disturbance in the south and west Asian region after withdrawing from Afghanistan to dismantle the economy of three nuclear powers (Russia, China, and Pakistan), who want to fill the gap of the US in Afghanistan and to resolve their matters without external invasion. On that occasion increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine is a good opportunity for the west to divert the attention of Asian countries from the economy but in long term, Europe must face the effects of the conflict because of their harshness toward Russia.
In the energy sector, Europe is 60% dependent on Russia, Russia is the main source of oil and gas for Europe, and most of the energy pipelines pass through Ukraine. Oil prices would be increased 10 times more than the current price in Europe if war continues in the region. Moreover, the west put harsh sanctions on Russian banks and on money transfers such as SWIFT, which is the main and easiest source of transections. But this will affect Russia for short time, and Russia may shift to another source such as they can use a Chinese transactions system. India is also searching for other sources after the international ban on SWIFT, to do economic activities with Russia. This ban creates problems for Dollar value in long term due to transactions in other currencies.
European Union countries backed by the United States, imposing harsh sanctions on Russia such as in sports, film industry, through UN resolutions, banking and economic sector to devalue Russian currency. Before invading Russian know all these hurdles and was still using its hardcore policies toward Ukraine. It shows how much Russia is concerned about its national security issues.
The United States especially targets Russian oligarchs and freezing their assets such as hotels, businesses, and other oil companies to punish Putin and his partners in crime. The US also forced the UK and other European countries to freeze Russian billionaires’ assets to confront Russian actions against Ukraine. In the second meeting, both Moscow and Kyiv agreed to provide humanitarian corridors to Ukrainian who want to evacuate from the county. On the other side Russia still continuously attacking Ukraine and its population facing difficulties in the evacuation process. According to a United Nations report, almost 1.7 million people have fled from the country. Things are getting worse because Russian forces conquering Ukraine territory from North (Belarus), East (Russian border), and South through the Black Sea. Instead of working for the prevention of this conflict US working with Poland the largest eastern European country member of the EU, plan to provide fighter jets to Ukraine to confront Russian forces.
Instead of providing arms and other military equipment by western countries to Ukraine, they must mediate and make the current negotiations more progressive to de-escalate the war. These sanctions can escalate the war because Russia is a world power and a geopolitical influencer not like other countries Iran and North Korea to whom you can deal with these sanctions. Sanctions are not the solution here; there is a need for strong diplomatic talks upon which both countries agreed and Ukraine has to leave the dream of Joining NATO. Otherwise, Russia will continuously be making the situation worse for Ukraine and causing disruption in Europe which can lead to regional war or world war in the future. It can be a third huge diplomatic failure for European countries which they have done before in two world wars by ignoring the needs of the situation at that time.