Pak-India Nuclear Doctrines: Simmering South Asia Arms Race, Where Could It Lead?

Pakistan & India converted to assumed Arch-rival from the day first when both neighboring states came into existence on the map of the world, as sovereign independent states

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The rivalry between India and Pakistan is to a large extent embedded in the structure of the relationship between the two states.
Pakistan & India converted to assumed Arch-rival from the day first when both neighboring states came into existence on the map of the world, as sovereign independent states. Initial tragic incidents further infuriated both Neighbor’ bilateral relations. With a growing deficit of mistrust, changing regional & global unkind dynamics, territorial disputes, and a plethora of falls propagation, fire & Fury approach, incendiary statements from both countries military-Civil leadership incessantly ignited situation reciprocally with the passage of time. A cursory comparison of both country’s nuclear doctrines & their conventional & Non-conventional capabilities. Some facts & Fiction amplified both country’s priorities in the purely military dimension.

Indian nuclear program was conceived in the pre-independence era of a small group of scientists. India accelerated its nuclear program for ambitious purposes after China successfully detonated its first nuclear explosive device. India’s growing fear of China’s conventional & Non-conventional superiority paved the way for Indian policymakers, strategic thinkers to acquire nuclear weapons capability. India’s first nuclear detonation was carried out in the Pokhran region near the Pakistani Border named ‘Smiling Buddha ( Atom for Peace ). India didn’t enunciate its nuclear doctrine before 1998 due to its less advanced nuclear program & minimum imminent threat from neighboring foes Pakistan & China. India published an official nuclear doctrine on 4, 2003 which was then made public with the following key points.1: credible minimum deterrence
2: No first use but will be used against nuclear weapons state
3: civil political leadership only can authorize these retaliation attacks
4: the non-nuclear state will not be hit but in case of a major attack India will have the option to retaliate massively
5: strict control on the fissile material & following the declaration of FMCT.
6: will strictly follow a nuclear-free world on a non-discriminatory basis.

India striving hard to come in parity with China as well. India’s nuclear ambition is not only Pakistan-centric but she is confronting two loopholes Pakistan & China. India considers itself as regional Power its growing military postures indicate the future desire of India to maintain the balance of power with its rival neighbors.
Nuclear weapons without delivery mean is futile. India also has a clumsy ballistic missile program. India trying to equip its military with Triad- land, Air, Sea-based Missile system includes SRM, LRM, ICBM, and ADM. India possesses enough stockpiles of short, medium, & long-range missile defense systems. India spends a large portion of its GDP on military expenditures. After several small level skirmishes with Pakistan K Sundarji led operation Barastacks, Kargil War, Siachin quagmire & 2001 attack on Indian parliament’ which carried out by a terrorist group. India Denounced Pakistan for alleged involvement. Both countries were in escalating condition, India started mobilization of military troops toward the Pakistani border which takes more than three weeks. India came with a new strategy Cold start doctrine CSD to counter any possible attack from Pakistan with punitive measures. The cold start doctrine was meant to avert direct nuclear clash & to Gain desired goals against the enemy. It was a glaring security issue for Pakistan. India is the 2nd largest importer of Arms in the world. India’s Major arms partners are Russia, the US, Israel, France & Britain. India’s increasing military expenditures’ billion dollars arms deals with Major Powers are considerable fear to Pakistani national security. US India civil nuclear deal in 2005 despite Non-signatory of NPT, S400 from Russia, Rafale aircraft deal with France & growing military partnership With Israel will further accelerate Arms race in the region.

Hostile relations with India from the day first, 1965 war, tragic event of 1971 East Pakistan today Bangladesh & India nuclear detonation in 1974 pushed Pakistan ahead to acquire nuclear capability. Pakistan’s nuclear program was led by ZA Bhutto with his famous words. We are now in thousands of year’s war, we will acquire nuclear capability either we have to eat grass. Pakistan started its nuclear program in extremely unfavorable condition before USSR invaded Afghanistan. It was the cold war era, Containment of Communism & USSR. Pakistan got ample opportunity and covertly started uranium enrichments .according to Dr. Qadir prominent nuclear scientist Pakistan was ready for Cold nuclear detonation in 1984-85. The overt nuclearization of both countries in 1998 finally gave Nuclear Parity to Pakistan. Pakistan always opted for an Action reaction policy against India with its staggering economic conditions & minimum resources. After the successful detonation of a nuclear explosion, Pakistan ensured non-conventional capability with” more is unnecessary while little is enough”

Pakistani nuclear doctrine is undeclared, it has three distinct policy objectives.
1: deter a first nuclear use of India
2: enable Pakistan to deter Indian conventional attack
3: Pakistan principally adopts the option of ‘ credible Minimum Deterrence ” this concept is the central pillar of Pakistan’s nuclear program.

Ambiguity in nuclear Doctrines is the central strategy of very Nuclear weapons states
General (R) Kahlid Kudwai further elaborated Pakistani nuclear doctrines with these four significant thresholds.

1: Pakistan will use its nuclear weapons in case of huge territorial loss
2: in case of Economic strangulation
3: large scale internal subversion
4: the destruction of a large part of land or air forces.

Pakistan & India pursue the same strategy to indulge the enemy in perpetual tenable guessing. The Pakistani missile program is purely designed Against India. Pakistan possesses SRM, MRM, & TNW. Pakistan spends its large amount on its nuclear program, Conventional weapons to counter India’s military posture. Pakistan countered India CSD with NTW. After a multi-billion dollar deal with Russia Pakistan successfully launched its MIRVs Ababeel missile to counter S400 anti-Missile system.

Pakistan indigenously developed Tanks, (Alkhalid, Alzarae )fighter jets,( Mashak trainer, J717 thunder ) drones ( Burqa, ) for growing military requirements.

Pakistan & India vehemently increasing their nuclear stockpiles. Due to China’s factor, India will not abandon its nuclear Weapons if any development takes place between Pakistan & India in near future. The US wants to contain China military maneuverability’s in Indo Pacific region. 2005 Indo US civil nuclear deals & US support for Indian membership in NSG indicates Future assessments of the nuclear arms race. China’s support of Pakistan in the civil nuclear field will further intensify the arms race in the region. Kashmir is a lingering testimony of a nuclear flashpoint between two nuclear weapons states.

Way forward:
1: Pakistan & India should resolve their bilateral issues with dialogue & mutual consent.
2: Pakistan should abandon its India-centric maneuverability due to scarce resources & staggering economic conditions.
3: major Powers must shun their war-based industrial policy.

4: both countries should start trade activities, people-to-people contact, and cultural diversification.
5: CBM between military & civil leadership.
6: mutual harmony, fraternity, cooperation, tranquility at a mass level.
7: Change in behavior, change in mindset. Both countries’ executioners of security policies must stop action-reaction, bit by bit approach.
8: education, health, economic prosperity is more lucrative, more desirable, more akin than weapons,
An ugly stick is more important than a Piece of Morsel.
Let’s Peace prevail in the region.

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